Decisions
3 h across a week

WRAP

Four counters to the four common errors: narrow framing, confirmation bias, short-term emotion, and overconfidence about the future.

Time cost
3 h across a week
Output
A widened set, a test result, a distance check, and a written tripwire.
Steps
4

Use when

  • A decision matters and you have time for a structured pass.
  • You notice you have been arguing for one option rather than between options.
  • The decision will be made once and lived with for a long time.

Do not use when

  • The decision is reversible and cheap. Four steps is three too many.
  • You are using it to postpone. Each step can be run indefinitely.

Inputs required

  • A decision
  • At least a day, because step three needs distance

Procedure

  1. 01

    Widen your options

    Run the vanishing-options test. Look for an “and” where you assumed an “or”. Find someone who has already solved this problem and see what set they chose from.

  2. 02

    Reality-test your assumptions

    Look for disconfirming evidence specifically. Run a small experiment where one is possible — a trial shift, a rented month, a pilot. Ask what would have to be true for the option you like least to be right.

  3. 03

    Attain distance

    Apply 10/10/10. Ask what you would advise a friend in this position — the answer is usually clearer and usually different. Identify your core priorities and check the option against them rather than against the alternatives.

  4. 04

    Prepare to be wrong

    Set a tripwire before deciding: a date, a number, or an event that triggers a review. Write down what would make you reverse. Bookend the range — plan for the bad case and the good one, not the middle.

Characteristic failure mode

Running W and R thoroughly, then skipping A and P because a decision has emerged. The last two steps are the ones that protect against the decision you have already made.

Worked example

A person is choosing between two cities to move to.

  1. 01Widen: a third city neither had considered, and a six-month trial in one.
  2. 02Reality-test: two weeks of living in each, midweek, not on holiday.
  3. 03Distance: at ten years the difference is small; at ten months it is large. That reverses the weighting.
  4. 04Prepare: if after twelve months the commute exceeds an hour a day, revisit.

Result

A decision plus a written reversal condition. The reversal condition is the part that survived contact with reality.

Where to go next

Also cited by
The vanishing-options test